In brief: Do not build strategy around a list of fashionable predictions. Review three durable areas each year: how customers are changing, where technology alters the economics of work, and which risks could interrupt delivery.
Annual trend articles date quickly because they describe what is attracting attention rather than what a particular business should do. A more useful approach is to repeat a disciplined review and decide which changes deserve action.
1. Changes in customer behaviour
Look beyond broad market commentary. Review the behaviour visible in enquiries, sales, renewals, complaints and lost opportunities. Are customers taking longer to decide? Do they need different evidence? Are they buying smaller packages, expecting faster service or using a new channel?
Separate a genuine shift from a temporary fluctuation. Compare several periods and speak directly to customers. The goal is to identify a decision: adapt the offer, change the buying journey, improve proof or leave the current approach alone.
2. Technology that changes how work is done
New tools matter when they reduce cost, improve quality, shorten a process or create a better customer outcome. They do not matter merely because competitors mention them. Start with a constrained operating problem and test whether technology improves the whole result.
- What task or decision is causing delay?
- What information would the tool require?
- How will output be checked?
- What security, privacy or continuity risk is introduced?
- Will the change still save time after training and maintenance?
Small trials provide better evidence than a large commitment based on a demonstration.
3. Resilience in the operating model
Review the dependencies that could interrupt service or cash flow: a major customer, key supplier, one employee, one system, refinancing date or regulatory obligation. Consider both the likelihood of disruption and the time available to respond.
Resilience does not mean eliminating every risk. It means knowing which risks could materially damage the business and having proportionate alternatives, controls or decision triggers.
Turn the review into choices
For each trend, record the evidence, potential effect and recommended response. Use four options: monitor, test, invest or stop. Give any test an owner and review date. This prevents the annual trend discussion from becoming an unprioritised list of ideas.
Connect trends to strategy
A trend is relevant only when it changes a customer need, competitive advantage, cost, risk or capability. G&G’s Business Strategy service can help leadership teams decide which external changes affect the plan and which are simply noise.
