What the evidence means
The Longitudinal Small Business Survey covers businesses with 1 to 249 employees. This is a reported expectation, not an outturn.
Forward-looking survey response, not realised sales.
G&G verified business evidence
UK SME employers expecting sales growth in 2024
In 2024, 31% of UK SME employers expected sales to increase over the following 12 months.
31
percent
Original source
Department for Business and Trade
Longitudinal Small Business Survey 2024: SME employers
The expectations section reports 31% anticipating sales growth over 12 months.
View original evidence
Department for Business and Trade. Longitudinal Small Business Survey 2024: SME employers. 25th of September, 2025. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/small-business-survey-2024-businesses-with-employees/longitudinal-small-business-survey-2024-sme-employers-businesses-with-1-to-249-employees
Why this matters to UK SMEs
This measures short-term sales confidence among UK employer SMEs. It is useful for testing whether an individual growth forecast looks unusually optimistic or cautious, while recognising that an expectation is not a realised result.
Key breakdowns
In 2024, 31% expected turnover to rise over the next 12 months, compared with 38% in 2023 and 36% in 2022. A further 49% expected turnover to stay the same and 17% expected it to fall. Expectations increased with business size: 29% of micro, 40% of small and 52% of medium-sized employers expected growth. The highest sector figures were information and communications (41%), arts and entertainment (40%) and education (38%). By nation, the figures were Northern Ireland 39%, Scotland 34%, England 31% and Wales 30%.
How to interpret this evidence
Only about three in ten employer SMEs expected near-term sales growth, and confidence was lower than in the previous two years. Larger employers were markedly more optimistic than micro businesses. This points to a cautious planning environment, not to a forecast that UK SME sales as a whole would grow by 31%.
Limitations
The result is a weighted survey expectation from private-sector businesses with 1 to 249 employees. It excludes non-employers and does not measure the expected size of any increase. Expectations can change after interview and may not match subsequent turnover. Sector, size and nation estimates have sampling uncertainty, and percentages are rounded.
Practical considerations
G&G perspective: build forecasts from evidenced pipeline, conversion rates, pricing and customer retention rather than from sentiment alone. Prepare a base case and downside case, especially if the plan assumes rapid growth. Compare expectations with businesses of a similar size and sector, and review them regularly as orders and costs change.