What the evidence means
The denominator is businesses reporting at least one supply-chain concern, not all UK businesses. The ONS survey is voluntary.
Conditional BICS estimate among businesses with supply-chain concerns.
G&G verified business evidence
UK businesses concerned about increased transport costs
Among UK businesses with supply-chain concerns in late December 2024, 31% expected increased transportation costs during the following 12 months.
31
percent
Original source
Office for National Statistics
Business insights and impact on the UK economy: 9 January 2025
Among businesses with concerns, 31% expected increased transportation costs.
View original evidence
Office for National Statistics. Business insights and impact on the UK economy: 9 January 2025. 9th of January, 2025. https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/bulletins/businessinsightsandimpactontheukeconomy/9january2025
Why this matters to UK SMEs
Transport costs affect landed cost, delivery pricing and working capital, particularly for SMEs moving physical goods. The figure shows the concern among already-exposed businesses rather than the prevalence or size of transport-cost increases across the whole economy.
Key breakdowns
Among businesses reporting at least one supply-chain concern, 31% expected increased transportation costs over the next 12 months, three percentage points higher than late September 2024. Higher sourcing costs were reported by 44% and higher labour costs by 24%. The concerned group represented 23% of businesses.
How to interpret this evidence
The denominator is the subset with supply-chain concerns. Respondents could choose multiple impacts, so categories overlap. The result captures expectations in late December 2024 and is not a transport-price index.
Limitations
The voluntary BICS excludes some industries and is subject to sampling and non-sampling error. It does not identify mode, distance, contract structure, fuel exposure, shipment size or the amount of anticipated cost. Later market conditions may differ from this dated snapshot.
Practical considerations
G&G perspective: calculate transport cost by product, customer and route rather than treating freight as a uniform overhead. Review consolidation, minimum order values, delivery promises, carrier dependency and pricing terms, while protecting service reliability and avoiding excessive inventory.